If a leader’s fate could be decided by a single speech, Theresa May’s tenure at the top of the Conservative party might not have survived the calamitous delivery of last year’s keynote conference address. Instead the prime minister made it through another year and, in a vastly improved display, was able even to joke about the mishaps that ruined her attempted relaunch in 2017. But just as one bad day did not destroy Mrs May, a relatively good one does not save her. The structural obstacles to success, in Brexit and other policy areas, are unchanged by her performance in Birmingham.
Mrs May has at least bought herself time. It might be only a few weeks, but she can proceed with Brexit negotiations more confident that her party is willing her to succeed instead of plotting her demise. Yet that advantage is of little value if she doesn’t also have permission to make compromises in Brussels. It looks increasingly certain that any deal will involve UK participation in something very like a customs union for a very long time (but branded as something temporary). That will inflame Tory hardliners and increase the likelihood of Mrs May relying on Labour votes in parliament. That foreseeable necessity partly explains the prime minister’s lavish praise for opposition backbenchers, casting them as noble guardians of a moderate left tradition, tragically traduced by an extremist leader.
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