End of furlough, corporate sector debt and continuing crisis in other nations all mean it is too soon to get out the bunting
- UK recovery at risk as furlough phased out, say economists
- UK unemployment drops as staff hired amid Covid rebound
It seems likely that later this year or early next the economy will return to the level of overall activity we recorded at the end of 2019. But even if activity in aggregate returns to pre-crisis levels, with services and construction in the lead, neither manufacturing nor agriculture seems likely to do so. We also expect to see considerable regional variation in the short run, with the economic prospects of London showing most resilience and the Midlands and Northern Ireland looking particularly vulnerable. More importantly, the economy has lost about two years of economic growth and sectors that are so important to UK plc, such as hospitality and the arts, may bear the scars for some time to come. It is far too early to get out the bunting.
There are three specific areas to watch carefully in the second half of this year.
Continue reading...from The Guardian https://ift.tt/3joNdYp
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