Uncertainties and local factors in the 1 July byelection mean the party will not be able to relax even if it sees off competitors
A lot rides on Batley and Spen. Labour will be desperate to buck its recent trend of poor electoral form against the Conservatives. If it can’t, the depth of its predicament will be further highlighted. But even if it can, the party won’t be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Because Batley and Spen has a number of local factors that make it different to the national picture. While a defeat for Labour would be especially terrible, a win may not indicate the party has turned the tide in terms of its electoral hopes. These local factors also makes it a particularly difficult contest to call.
Labour’s national predicament can be summed up as a party caught in a pincer movement. On one side, Labour has been losing voters to the Conservatives, who united the leave vote behind them. The Brexit party stood in Labour-held seats in 2019. We then saw the impact of the collapse in the Brexit party in the Hartlepool byelection, where a Brexit party to Conservative swing proved instrumental and notionally placed further red wall seats in play in a general election. On the remain and left side, Labour is losing voters in England to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. A Liberal Democrat recovery can place Labour seats in jeopardy in Labour-Conservative marginals, siphoning off Labour votes – unless Liberal Democrats vote strategically for Labour against the Tories. This pincer movement is also in evidence in economic terms. At the constituency level, Labour lost more voters in 2019 in areas of higher deprivation. The Liberal Democrats made their greatest gains in areas higher in affluence.
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